[BIZTPOL] Amerikai Egyesült Államok, Kanada

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    Az új szabályzat teljes szövege itt olvasható el.

enzo

enzo

Well-Known Member
2014. augusztus 4.
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Aladeen said:
4-5 billegő államban dől el most is...
Kattints ide a kinyitáshoz...

Így van. És levezeti miért hibás Trump stratégiája.

Persze ha ahogy a szerző javasolja, nyíltan a fehér szavazókat akarná populista üzenettel megszólítani, akik ebből a 4-5 államból úgy 3-at eldöntenének, akkor a zsidó donorjai fordulnának el tőle. Ha meg abortuszügyben lenne liberálisabb, akkor az evangelikál idióták.
 
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perceptron

perceptron

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2023. június 15.
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enzo said:
Nem hát, és nagyon kevésen múlik, nem a popular vote-on.

keithwoods.pub

Trump Is Heading For Defeat

Without a dramatic change of strategy, this election is now the Democrats' to lose
keithwoods.pub keithwoods.pub
Kattints ide a kinyitáshoz...
Hahaha, ez a legbutabb cikk hosszú ideje:

"I’m not saying he is certain to lose, and a lot can happen between now and November, but he is currently rated 1/2 with bookmakers, or about a 65% chance of winning. Presuming she is the unchallenged nominee for the Democrat party (not yet assured) I would flip it, and give those kind of odds, if not even shorter, to Harris. Thus, I think the current odds of 6/4 being offered on Harris represent a lot of value (not financial advice)."

WTF? :D Odds a bukiknal? :D

De ezután jön csak a java:

"
Keith Woods
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WRITINGS
Trump Is Heading For Defeat
Without a dramatic change of strategy, this election is now the Democrats' to lose

KEITH WOODS
JUL 29, 2024
212
136

Donald Trump is heading for defeat in this year’s election. I realise stating this is controversial — there has developed what I think is a misguided sense of inevitability about a Trump victory, especially on the radical right. When I said recently that I now believe Trump is going to lose, I encountered a flood of angry comments accusing me of needlessly blackpilling, ignoring polling, being contrarian, or just plain stupid.

I first expressed this view in opposition to my old nemesis, Academic Agent, who claims the election is a foregone conclusion, that Harris has “zero chance”, and that she has been appointed to play the role of a “jobber” (that’s pro-wrestling lingo for a wrestler whose job is to lose and make their opponents look strong.)


AA’s take on this is definitely the majority view. Trump has been handed win after win this year, from Biden’s shocking debate performance against him to his brush with death and triumphant recovery, giving us one of the greatest photos ever taken. With the nominee now almost certain to be Kamala Harris, some have taken this as confirmation that Trump really is the anointed one. Whatever chance old Joe had in a rematch with Trump, Kamala is electoral poison. While Biden could make the Democrats’ anti-white, radical left agenda palatable with his old-timey white guy shtick, Harris is the DEI regime’s real, ugly face. After all, even Democrat voters soundly rejected her.

This is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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This is a simple and intuitive, vibes-based approach to forecasting, and anyone could be forgiven for thinking fate is just on Trump’s side after the events in Pennsylvania, but I think the more I take a cold look at Trump’s prospects for this election, the more bleak they seem. I’m not saying he is certain to lose, and a lot can happen between now and November, but he is currently rated 1/2 with bookmakers, or about a 65% chance of winning. Presuming she is the unchallenged nominee for the Democrat party (not yet assured) I would flip it, and give those kind of odds, if not even shorter, to Harris. Thus, I think the current odds of 6/4 being offered on Harris represent a lot of value (not financial advice).


If we want to go from vibes to something tangible, we could look at polling. The problem though, is polling has proven to be a poor predictor of election outcomes in US presidential elections, especially this far out. It’s July. In July 1988, George H.W. Bush — who, like Harris, was then vice-president — trailed his Democrat opponent by 17 points. Bush not only won that year’s election, he won it handily: a smashing 426-111 victory in the electoral college vote.

At first, Trump was well ahead of Harris in national polling, but recently, Harris has made big gains, including in key swing states. A shift that dramatic in the space of a few days only underscores the fact that we can’t really expect these numbers to be the same four months from now, and that’s not even accounting for other issues like who’s answering the pollsters and who will actually turn up to vote.

No, polls won’t do."


Most jön a java:

"Treating US elections with the same kind of systems-driven approach used to study earthquakes, the duo found a method of analysis which treats general elections as a referendum on the performance of the ruling party. Using the keys, Lichtman has correctly predicted the popular vote winner in every General Election from 1984 and 2012, correctly predicted Donald Trump’s win in 2016 (though he failed to win the popular vote), and Biden’s win in 2020. The system was also tested on past elections right back to the 1800s, and found to retrospectively predict them correctly, too. If there is a better system to predict elections, I haven’t found one."

:D :D :D


Majd végigmegy ezen az olorsegen és kapásból tagadja, hogy az embereket körülvevő gazdaság bajban lenne, miközben leírja, hogy a többség recessziót érez, és azért sem dönti el helyesen ezt az értéket.

Igazi idióta.
 
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dudi

dudi

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ornagy said:
Elhiszem, de itt eleg lehet az is amit szimpatiabol leirsz. Amivel most szimpatizalsz 5 ev mulva mar nem kivanatos, alantas dolog lehet. A mai vilagban honapok alatt fordulnak meg az iranyok, trendek, a dolgok megitelese.
Kattints ide a kinyitáshoz...
Honnan veszed, hogy én szimpatizálok a gender propagandával vagy azár az usa-val? A világ nem 2bites, hogyha valamit nem szeretsz, akkor az ellentetét szeretned kell.
 
perceptron

perceptron

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2023. június 15.
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Átlagos reggeli Gothamist hírlevél (WNYC new yorki varosi helyi rádióadóé): :D

Today's newsletter is curated by James Ramsay

Weather: ☀️ Sunny, with highs in the mid 90s and real-feel temperatures up to 100. A heat advisory is in effect through 8 p.m.

It's Thursday in New York City, where some are of the belief that pigeons are not vermin or "rats with wings," but rather iconic city residents.

The curators of the High Line, who are of that persuasion, hope this a hyper-realistic aluminum sculpture of a pigeon will convince everyone of that when it's installed in October.

Here's what else is happening:

The MTA said yesterday that roughly half of the 2 million people who ride city buses every weekday don't pay the fare. The agency is now planning to deploy more NYPD officers to curb the problem.

Mayor Eric Adams is under fire after a city watchdog flagged 22 categories of irregularities in records for his 2021 campaign, including $2.3 million in questionable expenses.

Vendors and employees have filed five separate lawsuits accusing the Electric Zoo festival of stiffing them out of nearly $1 million in unpaid wages and invoices from last year’s three-day event, which was marred by an abrupt cancellation one day and dangerous overcrowding on another.

Mayor Adams said yesterday that since early May, officials have shut down more than 750 stores believed to be selling cannabis without a license.

A vigilante who regularly calls attention to toll evasion was arrested this week after ripping off license plate covers from cars assigned to the U.S. Secret Service detail protecting Vice President Kamala Harris’ stepdaughter, according to the agency.

New Jersey's attorney general released a report yesterday detailing major disciplinary cases against 460 law enforcement officers last year.
 
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dudi

dudi

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