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9.9.14. Analysis of the overall prospects of the forthcoming Ukrainian army counteroffensive in New Russia from military analyst "colonelcassad". (Part 1)
"The advent of the Donetsk army reached even greater results than originally planned. Exit to Mariupol was dictated rather there had operational emptiness than intent command. Chance to take the city from VSN was but a very short while in triumph and panic of the garrison marched in unison Berdyansk. but the junta managed to break a situation, and by 3 - September 4, cavalry raid here probably had all the chances to fall in protracted urban fighting. Certainly, one can argue, but the fact remains. On the theater of military operations, even bad, but a pause. this allows a few distance away from the daily routine work and look at the whole overall picture as a whole. in the relatively near the beginning of the counter-offensive of the junta nobody doubts. question is its configuration and the direction of impact.
To date, the Ukrainian forces TAU group, relative to conventionally divided into nine major areas of deployment.
Zone A: around 3,100 personnel, 50 tanks, 180 light armored, 100 mortars, 100 (taking into account the allocated units would likely be somewhat less) self-propelled and towed guns of all calibres, 80 multiple rocket launchers. Here are deployed three battalions of territorial defense in full ("Chernigov", "Kharkiv", "Nikolayev") and one company terbatalona "Aydar", two battalion tactical group (one of the 1 Drop, one of the 80 OAEBr), two battalions (at least) the 55th artbrigady battalion of the National Guard. Currently group "responsible" for the entire northern front fas total length of 100 kilometers and up to 60 - 70 kilometers in depth, from happiness to Starobelska.
Area: 2200 officers and men, 90 tanks (probably less two companies recently were moved somewhere. Arrived in their place 28 tanks were most likely not remain in place, and were relocated to other areas), 120 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles , about 100 mortars, 80 guns of all types, 30 MLRS. Area of Responsibility: Borovskoe - Sirotino - south-eastern edge of the agglomeration Syeverodonets'k - Lisicansk - Vrubovka and further Popasnaya. The length of the front line - about 50 - 60 kilometers. Newly deployed here two battalion tactical group. Judging by the number of armored vehicles, most likely from the mechanized brigades. Terbatalon "Sich". Terbatalon "Nikolaev". Battalion of the National Guard.
Zone C: 3600 officers and men, 150 tanks, 250 armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles, 200 mortars, 130 towed and self-propelled guns, 120 MLRS. It consists of six terbatalonov ("Kiev-2", "Kiev-11", 25 th Battalion of territorial defense, "Donbass", "Kievan Rus", the 42nd battalion of territorial defense) and one company terbatalona "Aydar" two Newly battalion tactical groups (one mechanized, one, apparently, from the 2nd brigade of the National Guard operational). This is one of the largest and most heavily, at the moment, groups of the Ukrainian army. It is concentrated in fairly compact area Popasnaya - Trinity - Debalcevo - Uglegorsk - Svetlodarsk - eastern outskirts of Dzerzhinsk. The length of the contact line of troops - up to 50 kilometers.
Zone D: up to 3,000 personnel and about 100 tanks, 300 (taking into account arrivals over the past 24 hours), light armored vehicles, 80 mortars, 200 guns, 200 MLRS. In the group includes: 3 BTG (one of 1 Drop, two of the visitors for 72 hours, the part number is not yet known), two fully terbatalona ("Artemivs'k", "Shahtersk"), one company "Aydar" battalion of the National Guard, battalion "right sector." Area of Responsibility Dzerzhinsk - Yenakievo - Avdiyivka. The length of the front line - up to 70 kilometers.
Zone E: up to 1,600 people, about 20 tanks, 100 armored vehicles, 30 mortars, 100 guns, 20 MLRS. It consists of one of the BTG 93rd Ombre, a fresh BTG (motorized infantry, arrived 90 hours ago), NG battalion, battalion "SS". The length of the front line is not large - up to 40 kilometers from Avdeyevka to Alenovki. And actually having to hold the position of only two highway M04 and N15. The space between them for large-scale offensive militia is not suitable. This Ukrainian military tested in their own skin in May - June, when they tried to attack, and the positions held militia.
Zone F: 3000, 100 tanks, 200 armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles, 150 mortars, 140 guns, 100 MLRS. Includes: two companies terbatalona "Shahtersk" Artillery Group artbrigady 23rd battalion of the "right sector", two fresh battalion tactical groups (motorized infantry or the National Guard, which is essentially almost the same), three tank company commander tactical group. Focused most compact. The length of the front line 12 - 15 kilometers between Volnovaha and Novotroitskie.
Zone G: 3200, 50 tanks, 150 armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles, 120 mortars, 140 guns, 70 MLRS. The second largest group in the area of the APU ATO. To date, the APU here focused newly created 1st operational brigade of the National Guard in full, four terbatalona ("Khortytsya", "Vinnitsa", "Azov", "Kharkiv-1") to two companies terbatalona "Donbass", battalion Task Force 79th airmobile brigade, a company of marines, a battalion of the "right sector," battalion (actually just reinforced consolidated company) the State Border Service of Ukraine. Area of responsibility - the defense of the city of Mariupol. Is considered to be in the environment, but in fact a continuous front Donetsk army has before him only the east and north. West direction, along the highway to Berdyansk, in general, for protected convoys permeable. That is just allowed to Kiev for three days to build up a garrison town almost three times the original.
As a separate zone (Zone D) should be considered two still not abandoned boiler APU in the rear of the Lugansk militia. First - surrounded by grouping the 25 th Airborne Brigade. Second - blockaded in Belorechinsky least reinforced company tactical group of 30 Mechanised Brigade. Formally, they are a few days in the environment. But in fact, almost no loss suffered, as all this time, serious attacks and did not reflect the impact of militia artillery especially something not exposed. That is the technique saved. Is that experience difficulties with the fuel, as well as some difficulties with ammunition and food supplies. If the onset of the Ukrainian army will pass through their areas at the expense encircled can easily compensate for their own losses. In addition, this group is very largely associates of available reserves Lugansk militia than already having a positive impact on the overall tactical situation as a whole.
Strictly speaking, in the rear of New Russia are two of the boiler. Remains of a tank battalion tactical group "sit" for almost two weeks in the area Zhdanovka, and two motorized infantry companies for nearly a month are southwest Deakovo. However, take into account they can hardly be. Marines too far away from any operating lines, immobilized and without assistance of any significant value does not represent. A tank is just too small. In the best case, up to 200 people at 10 - 15 tanks, it is unlikely to date capable of moving independently. Ammunition they probably still there, but at the expense of the desire to actively fight - very serious doubts. Because in the subsequent calculations, these forces will not be considered.
