"However, in my view, Russia is currently in its best place in half a century. Certainly in regard to the entire post-USSR period. The public morale, economy, societal solidarity and general political stability is absolutely at its highest.
The problem is, Russians are some of the least aware people of conditions in
other countries particularly Europe and the West. This results in their perennial pessimism in comparing their conditions to the West. Many Russians will unfavorably compare themselves to Europe or complain about economic matters, low pay, high prices, inflation, etc., while not being cognizant of the fact that all these things are usually worse in most of the West.
In general, ever since Putin got rid of Western NGOs and other propaganda arms, the Russian society has been at its most firm and stable because there aren’t the usual CIA engineered social movements which destabilize every enemy society.
With Soros NGOs gone, Western media throttled, pernicious CIA-provocateurs masquerading as “diplomats” cutdown with major embassy/consul cutbacks, LGBT propaganda dialed down even more than before, as well as cultural shifts to, not deplatform per se, but cut down the reach of other “undesirable” elements of society, like for instance gangster rappers (the worst ones of which were shouldered out of Russia, forced to take refuge in Dubai, etc.). These things have created a much stable and uniform society where even the youthful generation is starting to grow up more culturally and historically aware and educated rather than indoctrinated by anti-Russian or Russophobic nonsense. Partly responsible have been new campaigns and initiatives to redesign curricula in schools which focus on telling correct history."
Mit is akartam mondani? Nahát!? Ismerős? Az.
Más.
"The one important point the article does bring up in allowing me to debunk it is the common trope about Russia’s ethnic regions being disproportionately affected by the war. It’s a repeated syllogism that pro-Ukrainians use to say that Russia is recruiting only from poor border regions, like Tuva, Altai, and Buryatia and that these regions have disproportionate losses compared to ‘cosmopolitan’ ethnic Russian districts like Moscow and St. Petersburg.
The issue is, this does happen but only as a natural consequence of the laws of economics. You see, poorer regions in
every country typically have a higher percentage of people joining the military for the competitive pay and social benefits. Additionally, in Russia you get exempted from conscription—and therefore being a reservist who can be mobilized—for attending higher education institutes. In poorer regions, less people go to university and therefore less are exempt, which means a disproportionate amount of them end up in the reservist pool compared to Moscow where many of the cosmopolitans get out of service by virtue of attending graduate school at higher rates. This isn’t a “diabolical plot” of Putin’s, this is how simple socio-economics works."
(...)
"These people are extremely patriotic about the military, far more so per capita than the rich cosmopolitan regions who have more bourgeoisie things to worry about. In short, these people are proud to fight for Russia, and no amount of Western spin about their ‘disproportionate’ participation in the conflict can change that."
A tüzérségről:
"Let’s say hypothetically both sides fire 10,000 shells per day each. Let’s say all 10,000 of the ones Russia fires have a range of 30km. Now let’s say 9,000 of the ones Ukraine fires have a range of 20km, but 1,000 of Ukraine’s have a range of 40km.
Which side has the advantage?
It’s clear that for 90% of the firing, Russia will be outranging Ukraine, and inturn will be outranged in 10% of the cases. I’ve explained before that the
standard M107 and M795 NATO rounds that Ukraine uses 98% of the times on their M777s has a
shorter range than the standard OF45/61+ Russian rounds used on their 2A65s, 2A36s, etc.
The M777s are Ukraine’s bread and butter most numerous system (150-200). They received a few dozen French Caesars that can hit a tad farther with regular shells than Russia’s main bread and butter howitzers. However Russia has other ‘specialty’ systems like the 2S5 and 2S7s which can hit even farther than Caesars—and Russia has much more of those than Ukraine has of Caesars. So again, Ukraine is at a disadvantage.
Additionally, Russian Lancets now account for the majority of “counter-battery” kills and Ukraine has nothing to match that. Comparing asymmetrically we can say Ukraine has HIMARs which is doing what Russian Lancets are doing, just in a different way. Thus we can say they’re perhaps evenly matched in that one asymmetric subcategory. Though Russia has BM-30 Smerch which is superior to HIMARS in every way: much more powerful rocket of 300mm vs. 227mm, much greater range of 120km vs. 80km+. Russia simply hasn’t produced many GMLRS guided Smerch rockets until recently, but now there’s been an uptick of Russia reportedly using Smerch in the same manner as the HIMARs, long range guided sniping of rear assets—except Smerch packs a much larger punch.
That being said, just because Russia has the advantage or better systems doesn’t mean they can stop the systems Ukraine has. So as you’ve pointed out, the HIMARS has been having some successes, though it comes in spurts and lately it’s once again seems to have been neutralized.
Ukraine exaggerates the success of HIMARS by saving up about one month’s worth of footage, then releasing it all at once as a highlight reel that shows 4-5 spectacular hits at once. This gives the false impression that HIMARS is dominating the battlefield when in reality it’s the
only success in weeks. The typical short memories and attention spans of most observers leaves them forgetting about the 3-4 week gaps in between those releases, where HIMARS are not seen doing anything. That’s because they have maybe one decent hit per week, and they save those up into a monthly reel. It’s just more Ukrainian sleight of hand tactics."
(...)
"Russia is forced to fight with hand behind its back as Ukrainian assets like HIMARS are able to freely use Western ISR while Russia can’t strike those ISR capabilities in the same way they would if there was an outright open war against the West. That’s why I’ve pointed out before that Ukraine currently enjoys far more advantages than the West/NATO itself would enjoy were they to face Russia directly."
Orosz tüzérségi veszteségek havonta (ukrán forrás):
Az ukránok HETI vesztesége viszont 40.
Érdemes figyelmesen elolvasni a teljes 47. pontot, a várható háborús fejlemények kapcsán! Támadó és védőképességekről esik benne szó!
"“Is the Russian army not as capable as some wish to believe?”
You’re referring to offensive capacity here. Russia clearly showed its defensive capabilities during the counteroffensive thus far. So you’re really asking about its offensive capabilities. To answer that fairly, we have to ask, have you seen Russia’s offensive capabilities demonstrated yet in order to be a fair judge of that question?
The answer is no: Russia has not yet even launched an offensive in recent times.
If they had launched a major offensive somewhere and got very badly stopped, then perhaps you could have claim to saying Russia is incapable. But so far, everything Russia has actually tried to take in force, they’ve taken. Bakhmut was the most recent, and it fell. Some argue earlier in the year, Russia failed in Ugledar. But this wasn’t an actual major concerted effort to capture it. This was literally one 155th Marine unit simply trying to entrench themselves in the dachas around the town.
When you see Russia
actually attempt to take something, you’ll know it. To do that they surround the entire urban area first, with major forces. That’s what happened in Mariupol and then Lisichansk-Severodonetsk, and slowly in Bakhmut. That type of concerted offensive effort has not happened since."
(...)
“Our current task is to defend and destroy as much of the enemy’s equipment as possible.”
A 46. pontban pedig az ukrán mozgósítást tárgyalja ki, ill. hogy vajon ki ugrik ki elsőnek ebből az ukrán gyártású fék nélküli autóból?
And we’re back for the final blockbuster installment. Strap in, pop the recliner, grab the whisky because this one’s a provocative doozy, and let’s get to it! 35. What's happening in Ethiopia? Most importantly on our front Ethiopia has recently joined the BRICS, as you may know. Its official...
simplicius76.substack.com
... és így tovább ...
Aki azt hitte, hogy Putyin feláldozza Szojgut Prigozsinért, nos, íme a Szojgu (és Putyin) kultusz Tuvában:
(Nézzétek meg, főleg a jurtás részt! A film végén egy kis kitérő a helyi háborús veszteségekre.)
A 10k karakter eddig bírta.
