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Simplicius a harkovi áttörésről:
"The fact that this motorized regiment without much heavy gear was used is revealing. It confirms reports that Russia is no where close to introducing its “main force” into the region, which can come much later after Russia has tested the Ukrainian defenses, revealed their positions via recon-by-fire, and then softened them up with air strikes.
Ukrainian military sources report that not only does Russia possibly have a much larger force it intends to introduce later, but another one is gathering in Sumy region as well"
(...)
2025-re esik el Harkov?
"The objective here is not to take Kharkov any time soon. That can happen much, much later in an organic fashion as a byproduct of far more exigent objectives, like cutting off the Kupyansk corridor for the AFU. Little by little, Russia will worm its way in and surround Kharkov, which will be besieged and likely fall very slowly, maybe even by mid 2025 or so. They’re not in a rush to capture it any time soon as doing so is not necessary for the time being, nor would provide any recognizable strategic benefit."
Emlékeztetőül ...
(...)
"Some on the UA side are pointing to the fact that this was well known in advance, with Ukraine having good recon and intel on Russian force dispositions and general objective trajectories. This is meant to underline that Ukraine is in control, as Russia has no ‘element of surprise’.
The problem with this thinking is all modern warfare, we now know, is no longer contingent on element of surprise. Russia knows that Ukraine knows, and Ukraine knows that Russia knows that Ukraine knows. It’s
that type of situation—and it doesn’t matter. Despite advance warning and accurate intel, Ukraine can do nothing about the events that are soon to come. This is a chess match and a numbers game; you can “know” full well the constrictor is tightening over your chest, but there will be little you can do about it. Ukraine will lack the means to respond to the constant swell of Russian troops and armaments on every single frontline, which will only stretch longer and longer as Russia potentially introduces new breaches into Sumy, Chernigov, and perhaps even elsewhere—some Russian channels are still trading rumors of a potential push from Belarus into Kiev region as eventual part of the now initiated cascade."
(...)
"As a final note, contrary to early reports, the Russian MOD has
not even officially acknowledged nor announced this Kharkov assault in any way whatsoever, which means this is clearly meant to be downplayed for now and is not even close to the main push. It is further proof that this is just the early recon effort and the question still remains whether a far larger push will be made soon, or instead a more low key, gradual buildup and long range fires destruction to keep the AFU busy here."
We’ll keep it brief today, just down to the brass tacks of ongoing on-the-ground events. In accordance with information we’ve been reporting for many months about stirrings in the north, Russia has finally launched an assault on the Kharkov region. But it’s important to clear up a lot of...
simplicius76.substack.com
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Aresztovics:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1789046386916302857
https://twitter.com/i/status/1789031878076285418
Váltás:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1789167121282338980
Harkov régió:
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