Simplicius fejtegetése a mi/mennyi/hogyan témakörben + ukrán veszteségek, zsoldosok, Krím, Lancet M3 és a Mig-29, Szojgu, Észak-Korea, német Leok, Örmény-Azeri konfliktus, Mali és a Wagner Szíriában, Maliban stb.:
Because I’m a stickler for getting to the root of things, and will always follow up on important issues as they develop, I wanted to start with a continuation of a previous line.
simplicius76.substack.com
Tehát még ezt is megszervezték a "bénák":
"
Since the launch of the Volga project, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are invited to go to the frequency of 149.200 for surrender, just over 3,500 enemy soldiers and officers have voluntarily surrendered. In fact, a whole brigade of "counter-offensive"."
Aknák:
"During the entire Battle of Kursk, the Soviet side used 400 thousand mines. Now, only between Pyatikhatki and Gulyai - Pole - this is mainly the site of Rabochino - Verbovoe-our team has put 480 thousand mines and this figure continues to grow! It is noted that even in their deep rear, the APU, when advancing to the front line, often run into our mines, in which they made passages back in June."
A krími haditengerészeti támadásokról:
possibly because the photos “leaked” of the submarine appear to be potentially fake as:"Now they’ve targeted Sevastopol’s shipyards, hitting Russia’s Ropucha class landing ship and possibly Kilo class diesel submarine. I say
- they don’t quite match the satellite footage
- they were first “leaked” / posted by Ukrainian accounts
- they are strangely pixelated/censored when the leaked video footage of the ship right next to the sub was clear and uncensored
- there’s no follow-up / subsequent satellite footage to show clearer destruction when there has been such in every other hit, like on the Il-76, etc.
- they also claimed Russian patrol ship Sergey Kotov was hit by naval drones and fully sunk, yet it turned out to be fake, indicating a coordinated information campaign from Ukraine"
"Nor are the strikes on Sevastopol’s repair facility necessarily indicative of any newfound capabilities. Just like the strikes on Russia’s distant Pskov airbase, completely unconnected to the SMO, Ukraine is targeting more vulnerable and potentially neglected areas in order to create a splash. For instance, nearby in Sevastopol there are entire berths full of the most powerful, expensive, and advanced Russian ships. Why couldn’t they target and destroy those? Instead they were forced to hit a repair dock housing two already-out-of-service vessels, which were in fact sitting there defunct for months. It’s the same argument I’ve made before about Russia having entire airfields full of its frontline jets, Ka-52 choppers, etc., and Ukraine has not been able to touch them, instead relying on fanfare-producing sneak attacks on neglected and insignificant areas in the rear."
Dagisupport:
"
North Korea will supply the Russian Armed Forces with about 10 million shells of 122 and 155 mm caliber, — political analyst Yuri Baranchik. A number of sources also report that the DPRK will supply Moscow with such modern and powerful MLRS as the KN-09. Let me remind you that the KN-25 system was introduced by Pyongyang in 2019 and boasts a range of over 400 km. It is a kind of improved version of HIMARS," Baranchik said."
Ez lenne a valóság?
"Three major eye-opening admissions in just this one note above:
1. Recall I had reported for months on how Germany was fast-tracking and expediting a small emergency shipment of the Leopard 1s in July in order to plug gaps in the unforeseen destruction of Ukraine’s main armor units during the opening stages of the “counteroffensive”. Apparently, according to the above, even that emergency shipment was defunct and useless.
2. They admit that Ukraine has no abilities to repair or even maintain any of this equipment, so I suppose it’s a one time use disposable sort of thing, like one of those RPGs you throw away after, or perhaps—to be even more apt—like toilet paper.
3. The reason the above is a huger deal than it sounds is because of the next crazy admission: they state that this current batch of tanks is defunct simply from the exertion experienced during the light training they were used for. Put the two ideas together: on one hand the tanks are unusable and break down after only light use, and on the other hand—Ukraine admits they have zero capability to maintain or repair these tanks whatsoever…
What are you left with?
In short, it’s a complete fiasco and just goes to support my assertion that these latest stopgap measures are nothing more than terminal stage propaganda boost attempts of sheer desperation. Same goes for ATACMs, F-16s, etc."
Miért nehéz kiütni a reptereket:
"After another successful raid by Ukrainian Su-24Ms with Storm Shadow missiles, taking off from the Starokonstantinov airbase, they again began to raise the question of “why don’t we destroy enemy missiles, aircraft and their bases?” .
The answer, as always, is quite simple and banal: because we can’t.
This is not a matter of some behind-the-scenes agreements that many invent to explain what is happening. The fact is that the bases of enemy missiles and bombers are well protected by both shelters and air defense systems, and timely receipt of information from NATO satellite reconnaissance allows them to withdraw their aircraft several hours before the strike, which we have also written about several times.
At the same time, we simply do not use cluster warheads for the Kalibr or X-101 cruise missiles, which could immediately cover entire Ukrainian aviation sites (if it were possible to catch them in the open) or landfills of non-flying specimens that are taken away to spare parts for those still flying. And missiles capable of effectively hitting strong reinforced concrete shelters are few in number and extremely expensive.
On the other hand, as practice shows, our attempt to play passive defense ends with the enemy having the initiative and, having accumulated only a few difficult-to-kill missiles, simply breaking through the air defense in one specific place and causing serious damage that cannot be resisted.
Military Informant
Rybar:
"Why can't we take and destroy Ukrainian airfields, ports and railway junctions?"
A good answer to this question was given by the American military theorist Edward Luttwak in his recent article.
According to him, only for one raid of the British Air Force on Germany during the Second World War, aircraft could drop 2560 tons of ammunition.: This is more than the total tonnage delivered by Russian cruise missiles to targets on Ukrainian territory since the beginning of the CDF.
The nature of the fighting has changed dramatically since then. If then 700 (!) bombers could have participated in one attack, now there is not even such a large number of aircraft and flight personnel. Today, this approach, if the enemy has air defense, will lead to the fact that the already scarce boards will simply run out in a month or two.
Both "Kalibry" and X-101 are effective means of pinpoint destruction. But it is certainly not worth waiting for the fact that a salvo of 10 missiles is capable of demolishing some large Soviet factory that Ukraine has inherited, for objective reasons. And this is true for other similar products, be it Tomahawk or Storm Shadow.
This is clearly seen in the example of the US attack on the Syrian Shayrat airbase in 2017: with the launch of 59 missiles and accurate hits, no "moonscape" happened there, and planes from the airfield began to take off the very next day. (Rybar)"